"index": "0", "showIcon": false Most fundamentally, it is likely to cause global oil markets to become increasingly competitive. Global oil markets are changing dramatically. "index": "5", "title": "Trading conditions update", "showIcon": false "index": "7", "title": "China", "title": "India", "showIcon": false "dataType": "link", It adds that demand could soon fall rapidly in the face of stronger climate action – by at least 10% this decade and by as much as 50% over the next 20 years. "dataType": "link", "title": "Vietnam", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects.html", }, If a majority of low-cost producers have high levels of social costs of production (and hence high fiscal break-even rates) this is likely to slow the pace at which the more competitive market environment takes hold. "children": [ { }, A new report from BP surmises that we may already have passed the point of Peak Oil demand. "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "Early careers", for oil and gas will be increasingly challenged. "title": "Wild Bean Cafe", }, The point here is that any estimate of when oil demand will peak is highly dependent on the assumptions underpinning it: slight differences in those assumptions can lead to very different estimates. "index": "1", BP is less bullish, which is why it is trying to pivot away from oil after a century of exploration. "index": "3", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", The intuition underpinning this result follows straightforwardly from the recognition that a resource owner should be indifferent between extracting oil today and investing the proceeds at the real interest rate versus the alternative of extracting oil tomorrow. "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "0", "dataType": "link", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "Marketing", "index": "1", "showIcon": false }, "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/charting-the-energy-transition.html", "showIcon": true, }, "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/information-for-shareholders/dividends/preference-share-dividends.html", "title": "bp alumni", 15 septembre 2020. "level": "1", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "section", "showIcon": false Oil companies spent huge sums of money exploring and securing oil resources that were expected to become increasingly harder and more expensive to find. "index": "1", ] "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", { "title": "Spencer Dale", "index": "8", "showIcon": false }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "15", ], The point at which oil demand will peak has long been a focus of debate. "dataType": "section", { "index": "0", "title": "Governance report 2020", "title": "Definitions and explanatory notes", "showIcon": false ] }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "index": "4", }, "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/portugal/intern-programmes.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/the-board/bernard-looney.html", "level": "1", }, "index": "0", "title": "Guidance on share fraud", "dataType": "link", The world has already passed “peak oil” demand, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the latest energy outlook from oil major BP. "title": "Shipping cadets", In particular, that oil prices will tend towards the cost of extracting the marginal barrel of oil. "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/united-kingdom/insight-programmes.html", "index": "4", ] "showIcon": false }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/trinidad-and-tobago/contact-us-trinidad-and-tobago.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "showIcon": false }, "title": "Carbon pricing principles", "showIcon": false "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/country-and-regional-insights/russia-insights.html", "showIcon": false }, This is likely to slow the speed at which the new competitive oil market emerges. "showIcon": false "index": "15", "showIcon": false { "showIcon": false "index": "3", "dataType": "link", }, Moreover, many oil producers may take a long time to develop alternative industries and activities that are as profitable as extracting low-cost oil. "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, }, "class": "nr-navigation__link ", { "title": "Locations", ] }, { "title": "Cyber security and bp suppliers", The largest reduction in oil demand is in BP’s “net-zero” scenario, where global CO2 emissions fall by more than 95% in 2050, compared to their 2018 levels. "path": "/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/reimagining-energy/bp-culture-and-community.html", "showIcon": false "title": "Improving people‎’s‎ lives", }, "dataType": "section", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting.html", }, "showIcon": false { A new report from BP surmises that we may already have passed the point of Peak Oil demand. At some point, the potential for ensuing socio-economic tensions could start to disrupt oil production and so cause oil prices to rise. "showIcon": false "children": [ "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/career-areas/tax.html", "showIcon": false } "class": "nr-navigation__link ", },{ { "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2018/clair-ridge.html", "dataType": "link", Rather, the significance of peak oil is that it signals a shift in paradigm – from an age of (perceived) scarcity to an age of abundance – and with it is likely to herald a shift to a more competitive market environment. { "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", { { "showIcon": false "showIcon": false "showIcon": false "index": "2", "showIcon": false { "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/indonesia/graduate-programmes.html", In these textbook models, oil commands a premium, over and above its immediate economic value, reflecting the perceived scarcity of oil and the presumption that this scarcity will intensify overtime. "showIcon": false "showIcon": true, { "dataType": "section", "showIcon": false "class": "nr-navigation__link ", In particular, the high rents enjoyed by resource owners are likely to decline, with consumers benefitting as a result. Moreover, there is little evidence or reason to believe that the peak in oil demand, whenever it happens, will trigger a sharp discontinuity in either oil demand or investment spending. "showIcon": false "showIcon": true, "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/georgia.html", "index": "34", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/career-areas-for-graduates/science.html", "showIcon": false "dataType": "section", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/introduction/overview.html", "index": "0", "title": "Webcast archive", "level": "1", "index": "1", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/life-at-bp/diversity-and-inclusion.html", "dataType": "section", "index": "3", COVID-19 has dried up growth in worldwide oil demand. "path": "/en/global/corporate/what-we-do/gas-and-low-carbon-energy.html", }, "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false "title": "Learnership programmes", }, "dataType": "link", "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "index": "36", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/career-areas-for-graduates/business.html", "index": "0", { "title": "First quarter 2021 results", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "Trading", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-service-and-filings/rns-bp-p-l-c.html", "showIcon": false }, In particular, high-cost producers have been able to exist and compete alongside low-cost producers, even though high-cost oil is many times more expensive to produce. "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false "index": "3", "title": "bp boost", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/demand-by-fuel.html", "showIcon": true, }, }, { "title": "Culzean, North Sea, UK", But fiscal deficits cannot be sustained indefinitely. "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/demand-by-fuel/power-generation.html", }, "showIcon": false "showIcon": true, "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/trinidad-and-tobago.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/career-areas.html", The advent of electric vehicles and the growing pressures to decarbonise the transportation sector means that oil is facing significant competition for the first time within its core source of demand. "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/sustainability/data-and-how-we-report/task-force-on-climate-related-financial-disclosures.html", "showIcon": false "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false "children": [ "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", ] "showIcon": false Only a few months later, as the coronavirus pandemic hit in early 2020, this demand collapsed to such an extent that the value of the price of oil dropped to a negative dollar value per barrel. { "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/united-kingdom.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "title": "bp week 2020 - day three", BP-Chef: Warnungen vor Peak-Oil sind "zunehmend grundlos" 22. }, "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false "title": "Energy Outlook", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/oman.html", "showIcon": false "title": "Our stories", { La rédaction. "path": "/en/global/corporate/what-we-do/innovation-and-engineering.html", }, "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2018/western-flank-b.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, "title": "Notice of Meeting", "index": "4", "children": [ BP oil and gas production, in barrel equivalents a day: 2019: 2.6m 2030 target: 1.5m. The alternative strategy of transferring the burden onto the general public by reducing levels of support and welfare is likely to be deeply unpopular. "children": [ },{ "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/our-ambition/reinventing-bp.html", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects/major-projects-2017/west-nile-delta-egypt.html", "index": "1", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/our-brands/wild-bean-cafe.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/country-and-regional-insights/india-insights.html", } Under BP’s business-as-usual scenario, peak demand doesn’t mean … { "dataType": "link", "dataType": "link", }, }, "showIcon": true, By 2018, BP’s outlook started to foresee an end to the upwards march for oil, with demand peaking by the mid-2030s. "title": "Research and technology", }, The size of these social costs is of course simply a consequence of these economies being highly concentrated on the oil sector. }, }, Two other points are worth highlighting from this analysis. "level": "1", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "link", "title": "Financial disclosure framework archive", "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/russia.html", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/trinidad-and-tobago/intern-programmes.html", "dataType": "section", BP's report suggests that demand for oil reached its peak in 2019. "index": "5", "dataType": "section", "path": "/en/global/corporate/sustainability/caring-for-our-planet/circularity.html", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are/board-and-executive-management/the-board/brendan-nelson.html", "dataType": "section", "dataType": "link", { "title": "Trading & shipping", "dataType": "link", "title": "Taas-Yuryakh Expansion, Russia", { "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/india/shipping-cadets.html", "showIcon": false Just locate more of the commodities that everyone needed, extract and process them as cheaply as possible, and watch the profits flow. "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/investors/information-for-shareholders/dividends/scrip-dividend.html", { }, The move to oil abundance is indeed likely to herald a more competitive market environment. } "showIcon": false "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/locations/united-kingdom/north-sea-technician.html", "showIcon": false "children": [ "dataType": "link", "level": "1", "dataType": "link", "dataType": "section", "index": "3", } { ] The world isn’t going to run out of oil. "class": "nr-navigation__link nr-navigation__link--section ", "path": "/en/global/corporate/sustainability/getting-to-net-zero/ghg-emissions.html", If technologies and pollution rules improve, the dropoff in demand would be even more swift. "index": "0", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", "dataType": "section", "index": "2", "class": "nr-navigation__link ", }, "index": "0", "title": "Graduate programmes", This is, in part, true. "showIcon": false "path": "/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/country-and-regional-insights/brazil-insights.html", "title": "Graduate programmes", "title": "Constellation, US - Gulf of Mexico", { "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/who-we-are.html", }, Peak oil has probably moved out hundreds of years. "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/professionals/career-areas/trading.html", "title": "Coal", "showIcon": true, }, { { "class": "nr-navigation__link ", } "title": "Early engagement programs", { "dataType": "link", { "showIcon": false Even those projections which suggest that oil demand may peak relatively early, such as the IEA Sustainable Development scenario, do not see a very sharp drop off in oil demand. "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/students-and-graduates/locations/norway.html", "dataType": "link", "showIcon": false "title": "Launchpad", } "title": "2018 Upstream major projects", Global oil demand may have passed peak, says BP energy report Oil will be replaced by clean electricity, BP predicts, as demand may never recover … "index": "5", }, De hubbertpieken bij de aardoliewinning in Nederland 1945-2015 De hubbertpiek, ook wel peak oil genoemd, is het moment waarop een piek wordt bereikt in de olieproductie — gebaseerd op een mathematisch model dat in 1956 werd ontwikkeld door Marion King Hubbert, een Amerikaanse geofysicus uit Texas in dienst van Shell. "dataType": "link", "path": "/en/global/corporate/careers/search-and-apply/hints-and-tips.html",